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Wargame Prepares Students for the Next International Security Crisis

Andrew J Schappert — Mon, 03 Feb 2025 20:07:18 +0000

Wargame Prepares Students for the Next International Security Crisis Andrew J Schappert Mon, 02/03/2025 - 15:07

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Ellen Laipson

Lee Roberts

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“When we decided to close the Suez Canal, everyone else in the room had to change their plans, especially the United States.”

George Mason alum Jerad Harper (far left), an associate professor at the U.S. Army War College, leads students in the Middle East crisis simulation. Photo provided

So commented one Schar School of Policy and Government student who represented Egypt during a Middle East crisis simulation hosted by ��AV’s Center for Security Policy Studies (CSPS).

One year after the beginning of fighting in Gaza, CSPS trained students to anticipate the next crisis and how countries might respond. This simulation, which took the form of a daylong matrix board game, was part of an annual series held by the Schar School, including a defense and security research forum and a Gettysburg battlefield tour.

“We offer these ‘out of the classroom’ opportunities,” said Ellen Laipson, director of CSPS and the school’s Master of International Security program, "because they help students move from conceptual thinking and scholarly writing to actually imagining what it would be like to operate in a crisis decision-making environment.”

Ellen Laipson, director of the Schar School’s Center for Security Policy Studies

Reflecting on her extensive career, which includes time as vice chair of the National Intelligence Council and on the staff of the National Security Council, Laipson believes that these simulations can help participants better understand what careers suit them.

“Some people are more suited to being the analyst, with deep knowledge of different world regions, or of specific political and military issues,” she said. “Others enjoy the ‘gaming’ of weighing different policy options; those who think more in terms of ‘now what do we do?’”

George Mason alumni Lee Roberts, PhD Political Science ‘22, an adjunct professor and U.S. Army strategic intelligence officer, and Jerad Harper, PhD Political Science ‘20, an associate professor at the U.S. Army War College, led the simulation in which three years had passed since the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon ended in a ceasefire. They painted a picture in which the new leadership of Fatah and Hamas had formed a united front against Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and were demanding a full withdrawal to the 1967 “Green Line.” Students were then divided into eight teams representing the United States, the European Union, Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, and given packets describing their countries’ respective goals and interests.

Meredith Hutchens, CSPS fellow and international security master’s student, helped facilitate the simulation.

"Designing and facilitating exercises like this gives us an opportunity to merge our experience as practitioners with the curriculum," said Roberts. "Seminar discussion is great, but it can't really recreate the pressure of prioritizing limited resources, options, and time against multiple urgent challenges. We compress that sensation as best we can into the game and the students report that it makes the concepts much more tangible to them."

During the simulation, each team took turns during which they could take any action incorporating one of the “instruments of national power” identified by the Defense Department’s DIME framework (i.e., diplomatic, informational, military, or economic). They then had to defend the viability of their preferred action. Every other team was given the option of either arguing in favor of or against that action's chances of success. The adjudicator—Roberts or Harper—then used dice to determine whether that team was successful. The relative strength of the arguments for and against the proposed action determined the threshold that the dice roll must reach for the action to be successful.

“It's really great to see how quickly people get into their roles,” said Meredith Hutchens, a CSPS fellow and international security master’s student. “Most people are not timid about stepping into the role, regardless of which country they’ve been assigned.”

As a CSPS fellow, Hutchens volunteered to help facilitate the simulation and was able to observe how her peers navigated the scenario. She was especially intrigued by the negotiations that took place as groups of teams sought to coordinate their actions to achieve common goals and outmaneuver other groups.

“Your decision and your actions can have a lot of consequences, and if you choose to leave someone out of your action plan, that really impacts the game,” she said.

The Schar School’s security studies graduate programs are ranked No. 4 by U.S. News & World Report and include degrees in biodefense and international security as well as a national security track in the master of public policy program and an emergency management and homeland security concentration in the master of public administration program.

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Schar School Adjunct Professor Lee Roberts is ‘Teacher of Distinction’

Andrew J Schappert — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 19:22:09 +0000

Schar School Adjunct Professor Lee Roberts is ‘Teacher of Distinction’ Andrew J Schappert Thu, 08/15/2024 - 15:22

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Lee Roberts

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Schar School of Policy and Government adjunct professor Lee Roberts was recognized as a 2024 Teacher of Distinction by ��AV’s Stearns Center for Teaching and Learning. Roberts is a U.S. Army strategic intelligence officer in his 17th year of active-duty service.

Schar School adjunct professor Lee Roberts receives his Teacher of Distinction award from E. Shelley Reid, executive director of engaged teaching at George Mason’s Stearns Center. Photo by John Boal Photography.

The Stearns Center, which promotes and develops innovation in teaching among the university’s faculty, recognizes Teachers of Distinction as those who have been finalists for Teaching Excellence Awards and are known for their commitment to teaching and teaching-related activities.

As an active practitioner in the field, it’s important to Roberts that the subject of international security—I-SEC—is taught the right way.

“First and foremost, students in the [Schar School’s] I-SEC program are talented, driven, and conscientious future—and in some cases current—practitioners whom it is my privilege to work with,” he said. “I want to do everything I can to help them clear a path into this professional field whether as a government servant or in an adjacent field such as think-tank analysis or security journalism.”

Roberts, who has been teaching at the Schar School since 2018, is assigned to the Joint Staff from the Defense Intelligence Agency and works in the Pentagon, located not far from the Schar School’s Mason Square Campus. That proximity allowed him to earn a master’s degree in international security in 2017—he was also a fellow at the Center for Security Policy Studies—and a PhD in political science in 2022.

His academic pursuits, as well as his teaching, inform his profession.

“Essentially, I direct the design and delivery of joint studies into future military intelligence capabilities that establish the requirements used by armed services, defense agencies, and the defense industry to develop and build those capabilities,” he said. “I primarily focus five to 15 years in the future, and I really love my job—it makes excellent use of the educational experience I got at the Schar School.

“By keeping a foot in both worlds, I am able to help students realize their goals, and students’ fresh perspectives and the seminar content from the classes helps me to be a better practitioner.”

While receiving the Stearns Center’s Teacher of Distinction recognition is gratifying, it’s the success of his students that Roberts finds truly rewarding.

“I have on multiple occasions run into recent alumni in the halls of U.S. government agencies implementing America's intelligence, national security, and foreign policy priorities, and I cannot adequately describe the pride I feel in having played even a small part in their journey,” he said.

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Graduating Schar School Student Carter N. Coudriet Envisions a Pathway that Does Not Yet Exist

Andrew J Schappert — Tue, 12 Dec 2023 18:23:49 +0000

Graduating Schar School Student Carter N. Coudriet Envisions a Pathway that Does Not Yet Exist Andrew J Schappert Tue, 12/12/2023 - 13:23

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Ellen Laipson

Kenneth A. Reinert

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Carter N. Coudriet enjoyed collaborating with multiple faculty members as a graduate student in the Master of Global Commerce and Policy program.

As Carter N. Coudriet readily points out, his “dream job probably doesn’t exist yet.” But that does not mean that he does not have an excellent job, one that he doubts he would have gotten were it not for his time at the Schar School of Policy and Government at ��AV.

Coudriet, who graduates in December with a master’s degree in global commerce and policy, works as an export compliance specialist in the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Department of Commerce. In his role, he helps to ensure that dual-use items—those that have both commercial and security applications—are being utilized by other nations in a way that does not pose a security threat to the United States. His position directly builds on his work at the Schar School, where he studied the security implications of international trade.

Coudriet chose the Schar School because he wanted to study how trade fits in with security. He says security is as much about microchips, supply chains, and sanctions as it is about missiles and conventional weapons. The Global Commerce and Policy program offered an ideal setting for discussing and challenging the limitations of hard power and of free trade.

“I brought to my classes a security-minded skepticism of pure free-trade discussions,” he said. “The United States is clearly a beneficiary of global trade, and protecting global trade sometimes requires more aggressive tactics to ensure that others adhere to international rules and norms.”

Coudriet worked closely with a diverse array of faculty to further his intellectual framework. His academic career has a natural arc, in which various activities seamlessly grew and led to additional opportunities. After writing a brief in his Intelligence Analysis Class taught by Professor Ellen Laipson and Distinguished Visiting Professor Michael Morell, Coudriet continued to work with Morell to revise the piece and get it published in The Cipher Brief. Throughout this collaboration, Coudriet was astounded by the amount of time that a two-time former acting director of the Central intelligence Agency was willing to give to a graduate student and by how seriously Morell took his ideas. For her part, Laipson, the former vice chair of the National Intelligence Council, added Coudriet as a Student Fellow at the Schar School’s Center for Security Policy Studies (CSPS). As a fellow, he helped organize CSPS’s fall 2022 symposium on the Arctic.

At the macro level, Laipson valued the energy and passion that Coudriet brought to the conference; more tangibly, she valued his suggestions for speakers and panels. At the symposium, Coudriet asked a question of one of the panelists, on human capital development in the Arctic, which then became the basis of an independent study he undertook with Professor Ken Reinert. Reinert has offered to work with Coudriet to try to publish the paper that came out of the semester-long project.

“His research skills are fantastic, and he applies these in creative ways to help us better understand the human elements in the growth and development of the Arctic,” Reinert said of Coudriet.

All of this leads back to the aforementioned perfect job. For Coudriet, that would be at the Arctic-focused nexus of trade and national security. He is fascinated by the extent to which this region can emerge as more than a hub for natural gas and minerals and ultimately develop an economy and trade centered around human creativity and entrepreneurialism. Such a move could have significant geopolitical ramifications, including potentially weakening the relative influence of Russia and increasing that of the seven market economies that already have a substantial footprint in the Arctic. Many have focused on the shipping routes to the Arctic that will emerge as the ice in the region continues to melt; others have focused on Russia’s collaboration with China to build liquified natural gas production facilities.

Coudriet has so enjoyed working with Schar School faculty to examine the security implications of this trade and economic arms race that he hopes to continue collaborative research on the Arctic postgraduation. Wherever his intellectual fascination leads him professionally, he says has been given a “gift” of an extraordinary education.

“One in which my professors taught me that I could have a career thinking about the kinds of things that I think about,” he said.

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Schar School Students Spend a Day Solving a Crisis in the Baltics. (Don’t Worry, It Was a Simulation.)

Andrew J Schappert — Wed, 26 Oct 2022 13:48:10 +0000

Schar School Students Spend a Day Solving a Crisis in the Baltics. (Don’t Worry, It Was a Simulation.) Andrew J Schappert Wed, 10/26/2022 - 09:48

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Joel Hillison, director of national security policy and strategy at the Army War College, listens in as Team USA discusses proposed action during Game 2 of the simulation. Photos by Kim Talley

Dangerous turmoil brews in an Estonian separatist state, one supported by an aggressive Russian minority in the region. Surrounding nations are concerned about an outbreak of conflict, but what’s the best way to respond while ensuring individual rights, defending democracy, dealing with a refugee crisis, and protecting the energy grid?

That was the fictional situation facing about 45 participants in an October Baltics 2028 Simulation hosted by the Schar School’s Center for Security Policy Studies and facilitated by members of the U.S. Army War College. The daylong event challenged participants to apply their knowledge of foreign policy and strategy in an effort to thwart—or at least predict—possible outcomes of a realistic crisis.

It may have looked like an elaborate board game, but the perceived danger was realistic and the correct decisions were vital, said participants.

“It was very insightful and I learned a lot about collaborative decision-making and strategy during a geopolitical crisis,” said Master of International Security student Sebastian Evans. “I highly recommend Schar School students to attend simulations in the future. An excellent event and I am very glad I attended.”

The Baltics 2028 Simulation map.

Jerad Harper, an instructor and director of regional studies at the Army War College, discusses implications of a participant’s state’s move in Game 1 of the simulation.

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Schar School News October 2022

Symposium: The Arctic and International Security

Andrew J Schappert — Mon, 24 Oct 2022 14:39:47 +0000

Symposium: The Arctic and International Security Andrew J Schappert Mon, 10/24/2022 - 10:39

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When one thinks about the Arctic, what comes to mind is a cold and faraway world. But in fact, the Arctic has gotten hotter—not just temperature-wise (blame climate change) but also politically, environmentally, economically, and in matters of national security.

The Center for Security Policy Studies (CSPS) at the Schar School of Policy and Government will examine each of these topics during the Fifth Annual Symposium on International Security, held at ��AV’s Mason Square in Arlington, Virginia, on Thursday, October 27, from 9 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. The event is open to all; lunch will be provided. Registration is required at this site.

CSPS director Ellen Laipson, who also leads the Schar School’s international security program, explains how the changes in the Arctic will affect the economy, the demographic, and security at large.

“The rules of the Arctic will have to be reset,” she said. “It will have economic ramifications and national security implications” as the region’s previously unnavigable polar seas become viable.

The symposium will present three panel discussions and a lunch-break conversation. Panelists include experts in the fields of climate change, national security, economics, and other relevant topics. Perhaps most important, they will bring into focus why the world should be concerned.

The three panel discussions are:

How the Arctic Is Changing: Environment, Geography, and Governance

Panelists:

Erin Sikorsky, Schar School faculty member and director of the Center for Climate and Security
Marisol Maddox, Polar Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars
Eugenie Punitcherska, Embassy of Canada

Moderator:

Schar School Associate Professor Todd Laporte

International Economic Dimensions of the Arctic

Panelists:

Lawson Brigham, University of Alaska Fairbanks and Polar Institute of the Wilson Center
Richard Kauzlarich, Schar School Distinguished Visiting Professor
Lucy Duncan, Safe Ports

Moderator:

Schar School Associate Professor Ken Reinert

The International Security Picture

Panelists:

Dave Auerswald, National War College
Doyle Hodges, Texas National Security Review
Rebecca Pincus, Polar Institute of the Wilson Center

Moderator:

Schar School Professor Ellen Laipson

Schar School Professor Mark N. Katz and Russia expert Andrey Toporov will discuss the Arctic and the U.S.-Russian relations during a lunchtime conversation.

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Panelists Answer the Question, ‘Is Taiwan Ready for War?’

Andrew J Schappert — Wed, 12 Oct 2022 17:27:19 +0000

Panelists Answer the Question, ‘Is Taiwan Ready for War?’ Andrew J Schappert Wed, 10/12/2022 - 13:27

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Michael Hunzeker

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Schar School Associate Professor Michael Hunzeker, right, introduces the ‘Is Taiwan Ready for War?’ panel. Photo by Buzz McClain/Schar School of Policy and Government

China’s recent aggressive actions toward Taiwan have raised questions as to the readiness of the island nation to defend itself with its existing military. A capacity audience attended a special afternoon panel discussion on Tuesday, October 11, addressing that existential threat hosted by the Schar School of Policy and Government’s Center for Security Policy Studies at Mason Square. The title was simply “Is Taiwan Ready for War?”

Schar School Associate Professor Michael Hunzeker moderated the discussion. Panelists included former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby; Taiwan-based journalist and research fellow at the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation Paul Huang; Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) James Huang, a Taiwan-based defense commentator and former officer in the Republic of China (Taiwan) Army; and Senior Fellow, Codirector of the East Asia Program, and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center Yun Sun.

At the moment, Taiwan has “zero deployment, [zero] use of drones for any army artillery, [zero] armor, and [zero] mechanized infantry units. It has serious logistic shortcomings and poor readiness,” said Paul Huang. In the last five years, some 16,000 volunteers have left the military, he added.
Budget cuts also harm the defense capabilities. James Huang noted that the Taiwanese military was always small and hardly mighty, but has gone “from bad to worse. We have to rob Peter to pay Paul for almost everything.”
Why Taiwan needs to be ready to defend itself against Chinese control is important to the U.S., Colby noted. “If Taiwan is left to itself, it is gone,” he said, adding, “The best way to draw American aid is for Taiwan to be ready to fight hard and effectively.”

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New National Security Monograph: Confronting China’s Gray Zone Strategy

Andrew J Schappert — Wed, 28 Jul 2021 14:21:10 +0000

New National Security Monograph: Confronting China’s Gray Zone Strategy Andrew J Schappert Wed, 07/28/2021 - 10:21

Screenshot from the Stimson Center by Buzz McClain/Schar School of Policy and Government

The Center for Security Policy Studies at the Schar School of Policy and Government is pleased to announce a recent publication by author Raymond Kuo, an independent political scientist based in Minneapolis. Kuo’s book, Contests of Initiative: Confronting China’s Gray Zone Strategy, is the third in a series of monographs published by CSPS. Each of the publications is available at the CSPS website.

In Terror Vanquished, Simon Clark analyzes how General Carlo Alberto dalla Chiesa successfully led the Italian state in its effort to eradicate the Red Brigades, an Italian domestic terrorist organization. These insights may prove useful to other states, including the U.S., which increasingly experience rising polarization and extreme political thoughts and behaviors.
In A Question of Time, Schar School assistant professor Michael Hunzeker and others argue that Taiwan, and the rest of the world, can expect an escalation of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, including the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They conclude with recommendations for how the Taiwanese government can prepare for such an eventuality.

In Contests of Initiative, the newest publication, author Kuo recommends three distinct courses of action that the United States can take to defeat and deter Chinese coercion tactics in the South China Sea.

The three strategies Kuo advocates are distinct from those previously considered. First, the U.S. could seek an accommodation strategy, wherein Washington acknowledges some of China’s territorial claims and in exchange, the Chinese accept American naval dominance and allow for freedom of navigation. While it may sound somewhat like appeasement, and Kuo acknowledges that smaller regional states will object, adopting such a strategy would allow the U.S. to focus national security resources elsewhere.

Second, the U.S. can rebuff its strategy of pivotal deterrence. The U.S. can place more naval forces in the region, both to serve other strategies and to enforce the agreement struck by Kuo’s first strategy of accommodation. Placing more naval forces in the region would also ensure two major policy goals: ensuring freedom of navigation and deterring Chinese coercion.

Third, the U.S. can act strategically by closely aligning itself with regional partners, in what Kuo calls a shift from pivotal to extended deterrence. Kuo acknowledges that due to Chinese coercion, regional states in South East Asia are already seeking closer ties to the U.S. However, this may be the most difficult strategy to implement, as it requires that the U.S. develop its own coercive capabilities to come to the support of its allies.

The Washington, D.C.-based Stimson Center recently held a discussion with Kuo on his book. A recording of the discussion is now available online.

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