Sports Analytics

From punts to proof: George Mason adjunct helped solve the NFL’s “4th-down problem”

Nathan Kahl — Fri, 13 Dec 2024 14:13:37 +0000

From punts to proof: George Mason adjunct helped solve the NFL’s “4th-down problem” Nathan Kahl Fri, 12/13/2024 - 09:13

4th Down Bot

The New York Times' Fourth Down Bot is based on Burke's models

Read Burke's reflection

��AV alumnus Brian Burke’s career path, from fighter pilot to ESPN data analyst, demonstrates that whether it’s a 4th-and-inches decision or a career pivot into analytics, calculated risks can pay off.

Brian Burke. Photo by Evan Cantwell/Office of University Branding

In 2009, the NFL’s two best teams—the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts—faced off in a pivotal showdown. Late in the game, acclaimed football genius and Patriots coach Bill Belichick attempted to get a first down on a fourth-down play deep in Pats’ territory. Converting would win the game for the Patriots, but a failure would give the ball to the Colts in prime field position. When the Colts stopped Tom Brady’s completion inches short of the first-down marker, Peyton Manning took the field and easily won the game for the Colts.

At the time, many considered the decision a huge blunder, given the conservative, risk-averse culture among NFL coaches, who usually choose the “safe” option of punting the ball on fourth down. But today’s coaches are more likely to be aggressive in these situations, supported by an emerging focus on analytics and a column written at the time by Burke, now a Systems Engineering and Operations Research (SEOR) adjunct faculty member.

He turned a hobby of analyzing sports data into something of a big deal, founding Advanced Football Analytics in 2006, where he published his findings, in addition to consulting with NFL teams; the New York Times would sometimes print his writing and analysis. A column on Belichick’s decision turned him into an overnight stats celebrity.

“I did the math and estimated that the decision to go for it increased the Patriots’ chance to win the game by 9 percentage points. I wrote up a short article for the Times saying it was the right thing to do, and didn't realize it was going to be controversial,” said Burke, who completed a master's degree in operations research at George Mason in 2015. “The Times cross posted to my website and when I woke up the next morning my phone was blowing up.”

The data shows that NFL coaches should be more aggressive on the 4th down than they frequently are. Photo by Wikimedia

In 2015 ESPN recruited him to be a sports data scientist, which he does from his home in Reston, Virginia. “I’ve got a charmed existence, for sure,” he laughed.

His career started far from campus or a football field; Burke fulfilled a childhood dream when after high school he became an F-18 Naval fighter pilot. He earned a bachelor’s in aerospace engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy and after leaving the service worked for a defense contractor.

But he couldn’t help marrying his love of sports with an analytical mind. “I was talking with a coworker one day of this notion that ‘defense wins championships’ in football; people say it, but is it true?” Burke said. “You could download of data from ESPN.com in the mid 2000’s and I had a regression analysis software and decided to put in the numbers, build some models, and see what came out.”

This love of data and desire to launch his second career led him to wander into the SEOR offices in the Nguyen Engineering building one day in 2014, with no appointment. Late faculty member Andy Loerch, who also served in the military, asked if he could help Burke. The two bonded.

“From that moment on, I thought, ‘This is a great place for me,’” Burke said.

Loerch inspired Burke to enroll at George Mason and became his mentor. When he finished his program, Loerch and Ariela Sofer, then department chair, encouraged him to create a class on sports analytics as an adjunct.

Burke loves the role. “I really enjoy it and enjoy sharing what I know. You don’t know something unless you can teach it, so it forces me to nail down the basics and examine assumptions and go back to first principles.” He said he appreciates the opportunity to connect with fellow SEOR faculty members. “The creative friction when we’re together gives me great ideas.”

Topics

Big Data

data analytics

Sports Analytics

Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Adjunct Faculty

Alumni

How a George Mason alum and Army vet ‘piloted’ his way to NFL player health and safety

Nathan Kahl — Tue, 02 Jul 2024 00:33:01 +0000

How a George Mason alum and Army vet ‘piloted’ his way to NFL player health and safety Nathan Kahl Mon, 07/01/2024 - 20:33

Dave Hughes flew Chinook helicopters in Iraq and Afghanistan and comes from a family steeped in military life—inspired by his grandfather’s and father’s service, he attended West Point, graduating in 2001, and now his 17-year old daughter is seriously considering the Academy after recently spending a week on West Point’s campus.

So how is it that Hughes is involved with changes to the National Football League (NFL) rules, notably one that will have NFL players lined up this year in a new and unique formation for kickoffs? The short answer is the ��AV alum was able to convince his senior officers that a PhD in Sports Analytics was relatable to the military. And in the summer of 2023, following a 22-year Army career, Hughes joined Biocore—a safety testing and analysis firm that studies NFL players’ collisions and stresses and consults with the NFL on safety—playing a role in making this new kickoff a reality.

Hughes and family celebrate his PhD. Photo provided.

After being deployed several times, Hughes completed a master’s degree in management science and engineering from Stanford and then served a three-year stint as an assistant professor at West Point. He needed a PhD to take on more senior positions at the Academy and an old army buddy encouraged him to pursue something he was passionate about—sports.

“I wrote to professors at a few universities and asked, ‘Would you be interested in taking on a military officer for a sports analytics PhD?’” said Hughes. The response from George Mason’s Systems Engineering and Operations Research (SEOR) Department was robust, as seven professors said yes.

“David's background was in the military, but he came in on day one with a plan to work on sports analytics,” said SEOR Department chair John Shortle. “It wasn't a typical dissertation, but he brought a lot of energy and initiative to make it happen.” Hughes was the first person in SEOR to earn a PhD in this field.

He finished his doctorate in 2017 and returned to West Point for a second time, applying his research in his role as program director for systems and decision sciences. He advised several students who wanted to do research projects in sports, so he cold-called Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association (NBA) and convinced the leagues to send him data.

Shortle and Hughes on the day Hughes was promoted to colonel.

One of his students worked on an NBA-related project on rebounding, determining if most rebounds occur on the “weak” side, or in other words on the opposite side of the basketball goal from where a shot was taken. The student used the computer-vision data and applied his findings to military circumstances, explaining how the army could use GPS location data on soldiers to validate if squads or platoons were following the proper tactics and movement formations. The project won the best operations research project at West Point in 2020.

Hughes joined Biocore in the summer of 2023 in order to support NFL player health and safety.

From there Hughes worked on major wargaming projects for the military, and as he neared the end of his Army career, he enrolled in the Army’s Skill Bridge internship program, allowing him to work at a company for a few months leading up to retirement, assuring a proper fit. “Things were going well at that company but then that buddy Sam, who had recommended I get my PhD in something sports-related, called me and said, ‘Dave, are you ready to come do your dream job?’ He asked me to come to Biocore, and I just had to take it,” said Hughes.

Biocore provides engineering and analytics expertise to clients dedicated to understanding and reducing injury. As a senior researcher there, Hughes is the sports analytics team lead, primarily supporting the NFL.

Biocore covers NFL players in sensors—in shoes, pads, and even mouth guards—and collects data during gameplay. “We build a digital athlete, like a digital twin of that person,” said Hughes. “And we have the sensor history of that player and we run thousands of iterations of a certain play and can then pinpoint safety elements. All 32 teams can access our platform, which gives them insights so they can make decisions on things like player load. We might flag a player to say that he might be at injury risk and so the trainers and coaches know maybe to lay off in practice so he’s less likely to pull a hamstring in the next game, for example.”

Hughes (right) with a cadet, working on a project for the National Basketball Association. Photo provided.

Those new kickoff rules are in place because that play, though traditionally exciting, resulted in a high number of injuries due to what’s called “closing velocity,” from players running unimpeded far down the field to make a tackle. The new rules have players running a shorter distance to attempt a tackle—gaining less velocity on the way, which should mean fewer injuries.

Biocore studies all aspects of the player experience. “We put the data together to understand why injuries occur. If we change the turf, for example, or if we’d made the helmet better, would that particular concussion have occurred?” he said.

Speaking of helmets, as a longtime Kansas City Chiefs fan, Hughes was thrilled when Biocore came into possession of the cracked helmet of superstar Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, busted during a January playoff game when temperatures were below 0 degrees Fahrenheit. Hughes was relieved that Mahomes was okay, but looking at the helmet gave Biocore new data to consider as it continues its work with the NFL and helmet manufacturers to develop better-performing helmets for players to wear.

“Tell us the characteristics you want, and we’ll design a helmet that will be even safer," said Hughes.

For Mahomes and football players everywhere, this is good news.