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Washington Post-Schar School Poll partnership expands into national battleground races

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奥丑别苍听聽stepped into the arena and partnered with The Washington Post in 2016 to create a high-quality Virginia poll as a public service, the stellar results immediately confirmed its value.

鈥淲e believe the information being created by these surveys will be extremely useful to researchers and political observers for many years, and that鈥檚 a good public service. That鈥檚 part of our mission,鈥 said Schar School dean Mark J. Rozell.

The partnership, which combines the first-rate reporting of The Washington Post and the intellectual capital of the Schar School鈥檚 experts, originally assessed public opinion during both the Virginia and presidential elections in 2016. It showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by six percentage points in Virginia about a week before Election Day, matching the final vote margin of 50 percent to 44 percent.

Today, The Washington Post-Schar School Poll is conducting major, high-quality surveys in Virginia and nationwide.

With polling for 2018鈥檚 battleground districts recently completed, and plans for additional surveys of these voters during the campaign, there鈥檚 a lot to look forward to, said Scott Clement, polling director of The Washington Post.

This month鈥檚聽聽surveyed 69 competitive battleground districts across the country鈥63 of which are held by Republicans鈥攁nd found voters narrowly prefer Democratic candidates. 聽

鈥淭hese are the districts that will determine control of the House after the elections next month,鈥 said Rozell. 鈥淭he national preference polls are not very useful for telling us how the House races are likely to break down, given there are so many one-party-dominated districts. We are one of the few polls looking at the races where polling results really matter.鈥

Accuracy has been the hallmark of these surveys and has contributed to The Washington Post鈥檚 A+ rating on FiveThirtyEight.

According to Clement, one reason for the effectiveness of the partnership is because it focuses on 鈥渇illing gaps鈥攁reas where public opinion hasn鈥檛 been fully explored, both in terms of the issues [being covered], but also the groups and populations that are represented.鈥

The expertise Mason鈥檚 faculty members bring to the survey creation process, and their analysis of the results, are important contributors as well, said Clement.

Crafting the polls is both art and science, and Rozell is proud that scholars at Mason and elsewhere use the data for their academic research.

鈥淪cholars have a deep interest in studying voting behavior over time,鈥 he said. The battleground poll will be particularly insightful since it 鈥渨ill give useful data on how people voted and why.鈥

For future polls, it appears the sky鈥檚 the limit.

鈥淭he Post and the Schar School have big imaginations and ambitions, as far as conducting surveys,鈥 Clement said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e going to tell us things that we didn鈥檛 know.鈥

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