����AV

Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr., Professor of Public Policy and Eminent Scholar Schar School of Policy and Government – ����AV

3351 Fairfax Drive, Arlington VA 22201 Tel. 703-376-1149 jgoldsto@gmu.edu

EDUCATION

Harvard University. B.A. magna cum laude 1976, M.A. 1979, Ph.D. 1981.

AREAS OF SPECIALIZATION

Global and Comparative History, Comparative/Historical Sociology, Political Sociology, Revolutions and Social Movements, Political Forecasting, Democratization, State-building, Global Population Trends and their Consequences

ACADEMIC POSITIONS

����AV. Hazel Professor of Public Policy and Eminent Scholar, Mercatus Scholar, and Director, Center for the Study of Social Change, Institutions and Policy, 2003-

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Global Fellow, 2016-

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Elman Family Professor of Public Policy and Director, Institute of Public Policy, 2015-2016

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Director, Research Laboratory on Political Demography and Social Macro-dynamics, 2013-2015

Brookings Institution. Non-resident Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy, 2011-2013

U. of California, Davis. Director, Center for Comparative Research in History, Society and Culture, 1989-91; Professor of Sociology and International Relations, 1989-2004.

Northwestern University. Associate Professor of Sociology and Political Science, 1985-1988; Assistant Professor of Sociology, 1981-84.

Visiting Scholar: Australian National University, University of Cambridge, UCLA, UC- Berkeley, UC-San Diego, University of Paris VI, California Institute of Technology, Konstanz University, Chuo University (Tokyo)

FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS FOR RESEARCH

Fellowships

American Council of Learned Societies, 1984

Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, 1988 Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford, 1992-93, 1998 Mellon Fellowship for the Study of Contentious Politics, 1995-97

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2014-2015 John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation Fellow, 2014 Andrew Carnegie Foundation Fellow, 2020-2022

Elections to Societies

Sociological Research Association, 1991 (elected) Society for Comparative Research, 2004 (elected) Council on Foreign Relations, 2010 (elected)

Awards

American Sociological Association Distinguished Scholarly Publication Award, for

Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, 1993

ASA Barrington Moore Award for Best Article in Comparative/Historical Sociology, 2003

for “Efflorescences and Economic Growth in World History: Rethinking the ‘Rise of

the West’ and the British Industrial Revolution.” Journal of World History (2002)13: 323-389.

ASA Best Article in Comparative/Historical Sociology, Honorable Mention (3 times)

1987 for “State Breakdown in the English Revolution: A New Synthesis,” American Journal of Sociology (1986) 92: 257-322.

1990 for “East and West in the Seventeenth Century: Political Crises in Stuart England, Ottoman Turkey, and Ming China,” Comparative Studies in Society and History (1988) 30:103-42.

1997 for “Gender, Work, and Culture: Why the Industrial Revolution came Early to England and Late to China,” Sociological Perspectives (1996) 20:1-22.

ASA Best Article in Political Sociology Award, 2003

for “Forging Social Order and Its Breakdown: Riot and Reform in U.S. Prisons.” (with Bert Useem). American Sociological Review (2002) 67:499-525.

ASA Best Article on Collective Behavior and Social Movements Award (two times)

2003 for “Forging Social Order and Its �����𲹰��Ƿɲ�”

2023 for “T��� Paradox of Victory: Social Movement Fields, Adverse Outcomes, and Social Movement Success” (with Bert Useem). Theory and Society (2022) 51: 31-60.

ASA Best Article in Social Theory, Honorable Mention 2003��for “Efflorescences and Economic Growth in World �ᾱ���ٴǰ���.”

The Historical Society Arnaldo Momigliano Award for Best Article in History, 2004��for “Efflorescences and Economic Growth in World �ᾱ���ٴǰ���.”

CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title Award, for States, Parties, and Social Movements, 2004 Research Associate, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research 1997

Crayborough Lecture in Comparative History, University of Leiden 1999 Faculty Research Lecturer Award, University of California-Davis, 2003 Phi Beta Kappa Visiting Scholar, 2010-2011

Richard C. Holbrooke Distinguished Visitor, American Academy in Berlin, Germany 2011 Myron Weiner Award for Lifetime of Distinguished Scholarship, International Studies��Association, 2014

Outstanding Scholar Award, Schar School of Policy and Government, ����AV, 2019

Distinguished Career in Political Sociology Award, American Sociological Association, 2022 Ibn Khaldun Distinguished Career Award for lifetime of outstanding contributions to��comparative historical sociology, American Sociological Association 2023

RESEARCH GRANTS

U.S. Institute for Peace. Grant for conference and book on "Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century." ($37,900) 1988-89.

Center for European and German Studies, U. of California. Grant for Joint-taught Graduate Course on Global Economic History. ($10,000) 1991-92.

Liberty Fund, Grant for Conference on Revolution and The Prospects for Liberty in Eastern Europe ($36,000). 1993.

Canadian Institute for Advanced Research. Grant for work on studies of social systems and conflict. ($15,000). 1996-1997.

Institute for Humane Studies. Grant for study of the collapse of the U.S.S.R. as a revolution. ($8,000). 1997-1998.

American Sociological Association. Grant for Advancement of the Discipline, to fund a conference on the “Origins of Modernity” at UC-Davis, Oct. 1999. ($3,000)

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, U. of California. Grant for quantitative studies of state breakdown ($15,000). 2001-2002.

National Science Foundation. Dissertation Grant in conjunction with Ph.D. candidate Thomas Burr ($7,500). 2001-2002.

MacArthur Foundation Program on Global Peace and Sustainability. Research and Writing Grant on Sources of Political Conflict ($74,000). 2003-2004.

Smith-Richardson Foundation. Dissertation Grant in conjunction with PhD Candidate Scott Buchanan ($10,000), 2005.

SAIC, Inc. Political Instability Task Force, Research on Modeling and Forecasting Political Instability, co-PI with Monty G. Marshall ($663,000), 2005-2009

SAIC, Inc. Studies of Authoritarian Breakdown ($196,000), 2010-12.

Minerva/DoD. Micro and Macro models of Political Instability [subcontract] ($33,000), 2018-2019.

NATO Science for Peace and Security Workshop Grant ($50,000), 2018.

Charles Koch Foundation, Global Population Change and Public Policy Consequences, ($1,113,000) 2019-2024.

Fwd.com, Projections of U.S. Migration and their impact on US Demography ($46,951), 2020.

PUBLICATIONS

Books

1986
Revolutions: Theoretical, Comparative, and Historical Studies (ed.) Belmont, CA: Wadsworth/Thomson.
��1994����2nd edition
[2003]��3���� edition
[2008]���ʱ���������� Translation

1991
Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press. [Chinese Translation 2013]

1991
Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century (edited with T.R. Gurr and F. �ѴDz��󾱰���).��Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

1993
Theories of Revolution and the East European Revolutions of 1989, a special issue of Rationality and Society (ed. with Karl-Dieter Opp). Newbury Park, CA: Sage.

1998
The Encyclopedia of Political Revolutions (Editor-in-chief) Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Books.

1999
Who’s Who in Political Revolutions (ed.) Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Books.

2001
Silence and Voice in Contentious Politics (with Ron Aminzade, Doug McAdam, Elizabeth Perry, William Sewell, Jr., Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

2003
States, Parties, and Social Movements: Protest and the Dynamics of Institutional Change (ed.) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [Chinese Translation 2010]

2008
Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research: A National Research Council Report (with Larry Garber, John Gerring, Clark Gibson, Mitchell Seligson, and Jeremy Weinstein). Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences.

2008
Why Europe? The Rise of the West in World History 1500-1850. New York: McGraw-Hill. [Translations into Chinese, Italian, Portuguese, Korean, Russian].

2011
Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics (edited with Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft). New York: Oxford University Press. [Arabic Translation 2013; Persian Translation 2017].

2014
Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press [Russian Translation, 2014; Persian Translation 2015; Korean Translation 2015]

2014
Concise Encyclopedia of Comparative Sociology (edited with Masamichi Sasaki, Ekkart Zimmermann, and Stephen K. Sanderson). Leiden: Brill.

2016
Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World: Population Change and State Breakdown in England, France, Turkey and China 1600-1850. 25th Anniversary Edition with new preface and final chapter. London: Routledge.

2021
From Territorial Defeat to Global ISIS: Lessons Learned (edited with Eitan Alimi, Suleyman Ozeren and Suat Cubukcu). Amsterdam: IOS Press. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series.

2022
Handbook of Revolutions in the 21^st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change (edited with Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev). New York: Springer.

2022
International Handbook of Population Policies (edited with John May). New York: Springer.

2023
Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction 2^nd Revised Edition. Oxford University Press.

forth-coming
12 Billion – How Population will Change the World in the 21^st���Գٳܰ�����and what we must do to secure our prosperity, democracy and the ��Ա������DzԳ���Գ�.��New York: Oxford University Press.

����������Dz��������
The Collapse of All Authority: A New History of the Rise of the West and the �������ٳ���of Modern Economic Growth.

Articles and Chapters in Books

1975
“Subcommittee Chairmanships in the House of ����������Գٲ��پ������,”��American Political Science Review 19: 970-971.

1979
“A Deductive Explanation of the Matthew Effect in ��������Գ���,”��Social Studies of Science 9: 385-391.

1980
“T���ories of Revolution: The Third Generation,” World Politics 32: 425-453.

1980
“T��� Weakness of Organization,” American Journal of Sociology 85: 1017-1042.

1980
“Mobilization and Organization: Reply to Foley and Steedly and to �Ҳ������Dz�,”��American Journal of Sociology 85: 1428-32.

1982
"Response Options for Evaluating the Consequences of Pollution Charges," in Environmental Policy Implementation: Planning and Management Options and their Consequences, Dean Mann, ed. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, pp.��185-192.

1982
“T��� Comparative and Historical Study of Revolutions,” Annual Review of Sociology 8: 187-207.

1983
"A New Historical Materialism," Contemporary Sociology 12: 487-490.

1983
“Capitalist Origins of the English Revolution: Chasing a Chimera,” Theory and Society 12: 143-180.

1984
“Urbanization and Inflation: Lessons from the English Price Revolution of the 16th and 17th Centuries,” American Journal of Sociology 89: 1122-1160.

1984
“Reinterpreting the French Revolution,” Theory and Society 13: 697-713.

1985
“Revolutions,” in The International Social Science Encyclopedia, Adam and Jessica Kuper, eds. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, pp. 705-707.

1985
“T��� Origins of the English Revolution: A Demographic Approach,” Journal of Economic History 45: 454-458.

1985
“T��� Ecological Dynamics of Empires: 17th Century Crises in Ottoman Turkey and Ming China,” in Comparative Social Dynamics, E. Cohen, M. Lissak, and U. Almagor, eds. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, pp. 31-47.

1986
“How to Study History: The View from Sociology,” Historical Methods 19: 82-84.

1986
“Revolutions and Superpowers,” in Superpowers and Revolution, J. Adelman, ���.��New York: Praeger, pp. 38-48.

1986
“State Breakdown in the English Revolution: A New Synthesis,” American Journal of Sociology 92: 257-322.

1986
“T��� Demographic Revolution in England: A Reexamination,” Population Studies 49: 5-33.

1987
“Cultural Orthodoxy, Risk, and Innovation: The Divergence of East and West in the Early Modern World,” Sociological Theory 5: 119-135.

1987
“Cities and Social Change,” Sociological Forum 2: 176-185.

1987
“T���ories of Revolution,” in The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Political Thought,��D. Miller, J. Coleman, W. Connoly, and A. Ryan eds. Oxford: Basil Blackwell,��pp. 436-441.

1988
"Powers and Fallacies," Contemporary Sociology 17: 20-22.

1988
“East and West in the Seventeenth Century: Political Crises in Stuart England, Ottoman Turkey, and Ming China,” Comparative Studies in Society and History 30: 103-142.

1988
“Regional Ecology and Agrarian Development in Early Modern England and France,” Politics and Society 16: 287-334.

1989
“Deterrence in Rebellions and Revolutions,” in Perspectives on Deterrence, P. Stern, R. Axelrod, R. Jervis, and R. Radner, eds. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 222-250.

1989
“Rationality and Revolution: A Comment on Lindenberg,” Rationality and Society 1: 285-287.

1989
“Révolutions dans l'histoire et histoire de la révolution,” Revue Française de Sociologie, special issue on revolutions 30: 405-430.

1990
“Sociology and History: Producing Comparative History,” in Sociology in America, ed. Herbert Gans. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, pp. 275-292.

1990
“T��� Causes of Long Waves in Early Modern Economic History,” in Research in Economic History, Supplement 6, The Vital One: Essays in Honor of J.R.T. Hughes, Joel Mokyr, ed. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, pp. 51-92.

1991
“Ideology, Cultural Frameworks, and the Process of Revolutions,” Theory and Society 20: 405-453.

1991
“Monetary versus Velocity Explanations of the ‘Price Revolution’: A Comment.” Journal of Economic History 51: 176-181.

1991
“States Making States Making Wars Making States,” Contemporary Sociology 20: 176-179.

1991
���𱹴DZ��ܳپ��Dz�,” The Blackwell Dictionary of 20th Century Social Thought. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, pp. 549-550.

1992
Imminent Political Conflicts Arising from China's Environmental �����������.��Occasional Paper of the Project on Environmental Change and Acute Conflict, American Academy of Arts and Sciences. AAAS: Cambridge, Massachusetts.

1992
“Family Organization and Economic Innovation in Northwest Europe and Imperial China, c. 1780-1900,” with Lisa Hoffman, in Family Process and Political Process in Early Modern Chinese History, edited by the Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica. Taiwan: Academia Sinica, pp. 995-1014.

1992
���𱹴DZ��ܳپ��Dz�,” The Routledge Encyclopaedia of Government and Politics.��London: Routledge 2: 1049-1060.

1993
“Predicting Revolutions: Why We Could (and Should) Have Foreseen the Revolutions of 1989-1991 in the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe,” Contention 2: 127-152.

1993
"Reply to Keddie," Contention 2: 185-189.

1993
“Analyzing Revolutions and Rebellions: A Reply to the ������پ�����,”��Contention 3: 177-198.

1993
���𱹴DZ��ܳپ��Dz�,” in The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World, Joel Krieger, ed. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 786-790.

1993
"Revolution," in Sociology, Craig Calhoun and George Ritzer, eds. New York: McGraw-Hill, pp. 786-801.

1993
“Trends or Cycles? The Economic History of East-West Contact in the Early Modern World,” Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient 36: 104-119.

1994
“Revolutions in Modern Dictatorships,” in Revolutions: Theoretical, Comparative, and Historical Studies, Jack A. Goldstone, ed., second edition, pp. 70-77. Forth Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.

1994
“Is Revolution Individually Rational?” in Rationality and Society 6:139-166.

1995
"Response: Rationality and Revolution," Rationality and Society 7:120-123.

1995
“T��� Coming Chinese Collapse,” Foreign Policy, No. 99 (Summer): 35-52.

1996
“Gender, Work, and Culture: Why the Industrial Revolution came Early to England and Late to China,” Sociological Perspectives 20: 1-22.

1996
"Advancing the Environmental Security Debate," Environmental Change and Security Project Report No. 2 (Spring): 66-71

1996
“Saving the Environment and Political Stability,” Environmental Change and Security Project Report No. 3 (Winter): 33-34.

1996
“Revolution, War, and Security,” Security Studies, 6(2): 127-151.

1997
“Population Growth and Revolutionary Crises,” in Theorizing Revolutions, John Foran, ed. London: Routledge, pp. 102-120.

1997
“Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology,” Comparative Social Research 16: 107-120.

1997
“A Tsunami on the Horizon? The Potential for International Migration from the People’s Republic of China,” in Human Smuggling: Chinese Migrant Trafficking and the Challenge to America’s Immigration, Paul Smith, ed. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, pp. 48-75.

1998
“T��� Soviet Union: Revolution and Transformation,” in Elites, Crises, and the Origins of Regimes, John Higley and Mattei Dogan, eds. Boulder,��CO: Rowman and Littlefield, pp. 95-123.

1998
“Social Movements or Revolutions?: On the Evolution and Outcomes �Ǵ���Collective Action,” in From Contention to Democracy, Marco Guigni, Doug McAdam, and Charles Tilly, eds. Boulder, CO: Rowman and Littlefield,��pp. 125-145.

1998
“Rivoluzione (Revolution),” in Enciclopedia delle Scienze Sociali. Rome: Instituto della Enciclopedia Italiana, Vol. VII, pp. 473-480.

1998
“T��� Problem of the ‘Early Modern’ World.” Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient 41: 249-284.

1998
“Initial Conditions, General Laws, Path-dependence, and Explanation in Historical Sociology.” American Journal of Sociology 104: 829-845.

1998
“T��� State Failure Project: Early Warning Research for US Foreign Policy Planning,” with Dan Esty, T.R. Gurr, Barbara Harff, Pamela T. Surko, Alan N. Unger, and Robert Chen, in Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assessments and Crisis Early Warning Systems, John L. Davies, and T.R. Gurr, eds. Boulder, CO: Rowman and Littlefield, pp. 27-38.

1999
“Demography, Development, and Domestic Conflicts,” in The International Order in the Twenty-First Century, T.V. Paul and John A. Hall, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 352-372

1999
“Population and Pivotal States,” in U.S. Strategy and Pivotal States, Robert Chase, Emily Hill, and Paul Kennedy, eds., New York: W.W. Norton, pp. 247- 269.

1999
“Political Conflicts and China's Environmental Crises,” in Contested Ground: Security and Conflict in the New Environmental Politics, Daniel Deudney and Richard Matthew, eds., Albany: SUNY Press, pp. 247-266.

1999
“Prison Riots as Micro-Revolutions: An Extension of State-Centered Theories of Revolution,” with Bert Useem. American Journal of Sociology 104: 985-1029.

2000
“T��� Rise of the West -- or Not? A Revision to Socio-economic �ᾱ���ٴǰ���.”��Sociological Theory 18: 157-194.

2000
“T��� State,” in The Encyclopedia of Sociology, 2nd ed. Edgar Borgatta and Rhonda J.V. Montgomery, eds. New York: Macmillan, pp. 2996-3003.

2000
“Whose Measure of Reality?” American Historical Review 105: 501-508. 2001�� “Toward a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory,” Annual ��𱹾������of Political Science 4:139-187.

2001
“T���ories of Revolution, The Revolutions of 1989-1991, and the Trajectory of the ‘New’ Russia” [in Russian]. Voprosy Ekonomiki 1:117-123.

2001
“Demography, Environment, and Security,” in Environmental Security, Paul Diehl and Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, pp. 84-108.

2001
“Population, Environment, and Security: An Overview,” in Demography and Security, Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell, eds. Oxford: Berghahn,��pp. 38-61.

2001
“Population and Progress in the Middle Ages,” Population and Development Review 27: 585-596.

2002
“T��� Longue Dureé and Cycles of Revolt in European History,” in Early Modern History and the Social Sciences: Testing the Limits of Braudel’s Mediterranean, John Marino, ed. Kirksville, MO: Truman State University Press, pp. 169-187.

2002
“Forging Social Order and Its Breakdown: Riot and Reform in U.S. Prisons.” (with Bert Useem). American Sociological Review 67: 499-525.

2002
“Efflorescences and Economic Growth in World History: Rethinking the ‘Rise of the West’ and the British Industrial Revolution.” Journal of World History 13: 323-389.

2002
“Population and Security: How Demographic Change can Lead to Violent Conflict.” Columbia Journal of International Affairs 56: 245-263.

2002
“States, Terrorists, and the Clash of Civilizations,” in September 11: Context and Consequences. Craig Calhoun, Paul Price, and Ashley Timmer, eds. New York: New Press, pp. 139-158.

2002
“T���ory Development in the Study of Revolutions,” in Theory Development in Sociology, Joseph Berger and Morris Zelditch, Jr., eds. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, pp. 194-226.

2003
“National Security and Population,” in Encyclopedia of Population, Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll, eds. New York: Macmillan, vol. 2, pp. 685-688.

2003
“Comparative Historical Analysis and Knowledge Accumulation in the ���ٳܻ����of Revolutions,” in Comparative Historical Analysis, Dietrich Reuschemeyer and James Mahoney, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 41-90.

2003
“Europe vs. Asia: Missing Data and Misconceptions.” Science & ���dz�����ٲ���67: 184-194.

2004
“Neither Late Imperial nor Early Modern: Efflorescences and the Qing ������World History,” in The Qing Formation in World-Historical Time, Lynn Struve, ed., Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, vol. 1, pp. 242-302.

2004
“Case Control Methods.” In Encyclopedia of Social Science Research �ѱ�ٳ�ǻ����Beverly Hills, Sage.

2004
“More Social Movements or Fewer? Beyond Political Opportunity Structures to Relational Fields.” Theory and Society 33:3-4, pp. 333-365.

2004
“Response: Reasoning about History, Sociologically.” Sociological Methodology 34:1, pp. 35-61.

2004
“It's all about State Structure -- New Findings on Revolutionary Origins from Global Data” (with Ted Robert Gurr, Monty Marshall, and Jay Ulfelder).��Homo Oeconomicus 21:3, pp. 429-455.

2004
“How to Build Stable Democracies” (with Jay Ulfelder). The Washington Quarterly 28:1, pp. 9-20.

2005
How Fast Can You Build a State? – State Building in Revolutions” (with Jaime Becker), in States and Development, Matthew Lange and Dietrich Rueschemeyer, eds. New York: Palgrave/Macmillan, pp. 183-210.

2006
“Europe’s Peculiar Path: Would the World be ‘Modern’ if William III’s Invasion of England in 1688 had Failed?” in Unmaking the West: What-if? Scenarios that Rewrite World History. Philip E. Tetlock, Ned Lebow, ���Ի���Geoffrey Parker, eds. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 168-196.

2006
“A Historical, Not Comparative, Method: Breakthroughs and Limitations in the Theory and Methodology of Michael Mann’s Analysis of Power,” ������An Anatomy of Power: The Social Theory of Michael Mann, John A. Hall and Ralph Schroeder, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 263-282.

2006
“Democratic Transitions” (with David Epstein, Robert Bates, Ida Kristenson and Sharyn O’ Halloran). American Journal of Political Science 50: 551-569.

2006
“A History and Sociology of Historical Sociology.” International Journal of Comparative Sociology 47: 359-369.

2006
“Knowledge – Not Capitalism, Faith, or Reason – was the Key to the Rise of the West.” Historically Speaking 7: 6-10.

2006
“Scarcity, Crises, and Choice,” an essay on Jared Diamond’s Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Journal of International Affairs 59: 335- 346.

2007
“Global Report on Conflict, Governance and State Fragility 2007” (with Monty G. Marshall). Foreign Policy Bulletin 17 (Winter): 3-21.

2007
“Tra vecchio e nuovo: le rivoluzioni atlantiche in una prospettiva globale.” [Something Old, Something New: The Atlantic Revolutions in Global Perspective] Contemporanea, Rivista di storia dell ‘800 e del ‘900 10: 135-139.

2007
“Unravelling the Mystery of Economic Growth.” World Economics 8: 207-225. 2008���������� ���𱹴DZ��ܳپ��Dz�,” in The International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (2^{�Ի���}edition) ed. William A. Darity, Jr., vol. 7. Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA,��pp. 228-231.

2008
“Capitalist Origins, the Advent of Modernity, and Coherent ���������Բ��پ��Dz�.”��Canadian Journal of Sociology/Cahiers canadiens de sociologie 33: 119-133.

2008
“Pathways to State Failure.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 25: 285- 296.

2008
“Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability.” US Institute of Peace Special Report 204 (March), 16 pp. [Turkish Translation in Istanbul Commerce University Social Sciences Journal, 2008]

2008

2008
“Bully for Prediction” Sociological Methodology 38: 59-65.

2008
“Ancient states, empires and exploitation: problems and perspectives,” with ���dz����F. Haldon. In Dynamics of Ancient Empires: State Power from Assyria to Byzantium, Ian Morris and Walter Scheidel. eds. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 1-29.

2008
“Sociology and Political Science: Learning and Challenges.” In The Frontiers of Sociology, Peter Hedstrom and Bjorn Wittrock, eds. Amsterdam: Brill, pp. 59-66.

2008
“Europe’s Brave New World: Security Implications of Global Population Changes 2007-2050.” European View 7:319-332.

2009
“Engineering Culture, Innovation, and Modern Wealth Creation,” in Innovations and Entrepreneurship in Functional Regions, Charlie Karlsson, Roger R. Stough, and Börje Johannson, eds. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, pp. 21-41.

2009
“Rethinking Revolutions: Integrating Origins, Processes, and ���ܳٳ��dz����,”��Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, vol. 29: 8-32.

2009
“Flash Points and Tipping Points: Security Implications of Global Population Changes.” Environmental Change and Security Project Report¸ no. 13: 2-9.

2009
“Demography and Security.” In Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context. Compiled by Rosa Affleck, Rose Rainey, and Deborah Pyle for the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Research and Development Directorate (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Defense Department), pp. 32-43.

2009
“Revolutions.” In The Sage Handbook of Comparative Politics, eds. Todd Landman and Neil Robinson. Los Angeles: Sage, pp. 319-347.

2009
“Efflorescences et croissance économique dans l’histoire globale: une réinterprétation de l’essor de l’Occident et de la révolution industrielle.” In Histoire globale, mondialisations, et capitalisme, Philippe Beaujard, Laurent Berger, and Philippe Norel, eds. Paris: Editions La Decouverte, pp. 299-334.

2009
“From Sociology and Economics to World �ᾱ���ٴǰ���.” Österreichische Zeitschrift für Geschichtswissenschaften [Austrian Journal of Historical Sciences] 20 (2): 75-90.

2010
“A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.” American Journal of Political Science, 54: 190-208 (with Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder and Mark Woodward).

2010
“T��� New Population Bomb: Four Population Megatrends that will Shape the Global Future.” Foreign Affairs¸ Jan/Feb, pp. 31-43.

2010
“T��� Ballot and the Badge: Democratic Policing.” Journal of Democracy, 21: 79-92 (with Michael D. Wiatrowski).

2010
“Population Movements and Conflict.” In The International Studies Encyclopedia, ed. Robert A. Denemark. Chichester, West Sussex: Wiley- Blackwell. Vol. IX, pp. 5822-5835.

2010
“From Structure to Agency to Process: The Evolution of Charles Tilly's Theories of Social Action as Reflected in His Contentious Politics.” American Sociologist 41: 358-367.

2010
“Conflict Among Civilizations – 500 BC – 2030 A.D.” In Bulletin 2009, World Public Forum “Dialogue of Civilizations.” Pp. 215-226.

2010
“New Patterns in Global History A Review of Strange Parallels: Southeast Asia in Global Context, c. 800-1830, volume 2: Mainland Mirrors: Europe, Japan, China, South Asia, and the Islands by Victor Lieberman (Cambridge University Press, 2009).” Cliodynamics, Vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 92-102.

2010
“Revolutions, Comparative.” In Encyclopedia of Political Science, ed. George T. Kurian. Washington, DC: CQ Press.

2011
“C���辱�ٲ���������.” Berkshire Encyclopedia of World History, 2^nd edition, eds.��William H. McNeill, Jerry Bentley, and David Christian, Vol. II, pp. 456-462.

2011
“T��� Social Origins of the French Revolution Revisited.” In From Deficit to Deluge: The Origins of the French Revolution, eds. Thomas Kaiser and Dale van Kley. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, pp. 67-103.

2011
“Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies.” Foreign Affairs 90 (May/June): 8-16.

2011
“Pragmatism and Ideology in Revolutionary Leadership (A Structuralist Revisits the Self).” North Central Sociological Association 2011 Ruth and John Useem Plenary Address. Sociological Focus 20:184-193.

2011
“An Accelerating Divergence? Comment.” Canadian Journal of Sociology 36(2): 209-212.

2011
“How Opportunistic?: Peasant Revolts in the French Revolution 1789-1793.”��In Contention in Context: Political Opportunities and the Emergence of Protest. eds. Jeff Goodwin and James A. Jasper. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Pp. 37-58.

2011
“Cross-Class Coalitions in the Making of the Arab Revolts of 2011.” Swiss Political Science Review 17(4): 457–462.

2011
“Prudence and Pressure – Everywhere.” Review Essay, Historical �ѱ�ٳ�ǻ����44(4): 181-184.

2011
“Rise of the TIMBIs.” ForeignPolicy.com, December 2.

2012
“Demography.” In The Oxford Handbook of the Ancien Regime, ed. William Doyle. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 201-218.

2012
“Putting Values and Institutions Back into the Theory of Strategic Action Fields,” with Bert Useem. Sociological Theory 30 (1):37-47.

2012
“Demography and Security.” In Security and Development in Global Politics, eds. Joanna Spear and Paul Williams. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, pp. 271-290.

2012
“Is Islam Bad for Business? A review essay on Timur Kuran’s The Long Divergence.” Perspectives on Politics 10:97-102.

2012
“Protest and Repression in Democracies and Autocracies: Europe, Iran, Thailand, and the Middle East, 2010-2011.” In Violent Protest, Contentious Politics, and the Liberal State, eds. Seraphim Seferiades and Hank Johnston. Farnham, Surrey, UK: Ashgate, pp. 103-118.

2012
“Divergence in Cultural Trajectories: The Power of the Traditional within �ٳ����Early Modern.” In Comparative Early Modernities 1100-1800, edited by David Porter (New York: Palgrave-Macmillan), pp. 165-192.

2012
“Demography and Migration.” In Megatrends in Global Interaction, edited by Bertelsmann Foundation, Verlag Bertelsman Siftung, pp. 15-51.

2012
“Globalization and the Crumbling BRICS: Promises or Threats?” e-International Relations, on-line journal. November 2012.

2012
“Youth Bulges and the Social Conditions of Rebellion.” World Politics ��𱹾������special issue on On-line journal, November 20, 2012.

2013
“War, Capital, and Wages: A New Economic Theory of the ‘Great �پ����������Գ���.’��International Journal of Asian Studies 10 (1): 73-83.

2013
“T��� Role of Youth in Rebellion and Revolution.” In Winning Revolutions: The Psychology of Successful Revolts for Freedom, Fairness, and Rights, Vol. 2, Chapter 2, edited by Jay H. E. Ellens. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-Clio.

2013
“T��� Role of Demographic Changes in Social Development: Comparative Perspectives.” Chuodaigaku Shakaikagakukenkyusho Nenpou (The Annual Bulletin of the Institute of Social Sciences). The Institute of Social Sciences, Chuo University, No.17 (2013): 213-229.

2013
“Forecasting Stability or Retreat in Emerging Democracies” (with Snigdha Dewal and Michael Volpe). Politics and Governance, 1(1): 32-47.

2013
“T��� Origins of Western Superiority: A comment on modes of meta-history and Richardo Duchesne’s Indo-Europeans article.” Cliodynamics 4(1): 54-66.

2013
“Climate Lessons from �ᾱ���ٴǰ���.” Historically Speaking 14(5):35-37. 2014������ “Demography and Migration.” In Concise Encyclopedia of Comparative��Sociology, eds. Masamichi Sasaki, Jack A. Goldstone, Ekkart Zimmerman and Stephen K. Sanderson. Leiden: Brill, pp. 379-386.

2014
“China’s Place in the World.” A review essay on East Asia Before the West by David Kang and Never Forget National Humiliation by Zheng Wang.��Perspectives in Politics 12(2): 545-548.

2014
“Demographic Growth in Dangerous Places: Concentrating Conflict Risk” (with Monty G. Marshall, Hilton Root) International Area Studies Review 17: 120-133.

2014
“One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict.” With H. Buhaug, J. Nordkvelle, T. Bernauer, T. Böhmelt, M. Brzoska, J. W. Busby, A. Ciccone, H. Fjelde, E. Gartzke, N. P. Gleditsch, H. Hegre, H. Holtermann,V. Koubi, J. S. A. Link, P. M. Link, P. Lujala, J. O′Loughlin, C. Raleigh, J. Scheffran, J. Schilling, T. G. Smith, O. M. Theisen, R. S. J. Tol, H. Urdal, and N. von Uexkull. Climatic Change¸ 127: 391-397.

2015
“Demography and Social Movements.” In The Oxford Handbook of Social Movements, eds. Mario Diani and Donatella della Porta. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 146-158.

2015
“Political Trajectories Compared.” Chapter 21 in The Cambridge World History, vol. 6: The Construction of a Global World, 1400-1800 C.E. (Part I), eds. Merry��D. Weisner-Hanks and Sanjay Subrahmanian. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

2015
“T��� Impact of Global Demographic Changes on the International ���𳦳ܰ����ٲ���Environment” (with Monty G. Marshall and Hilton Root.) In Managing Conflict in a World Adrift, eds. Chester Crocker, Fen Hampson and Pamela Aall.��Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, pp. 241-254.

2015
“Simplicity vs. Complexity in the Analysis of Social Movements.” In Breaking Down the State: Protestors Engaged with Authorities, eds. Jan Willem Duyvendak and James M. Jasper. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, pp. 225-238.

2015
“Bringing Regimes Back In: Explaining Success and Failure in the Middle East Revolts of 2011.” In The Arab Revolution of 2011: A Comparative Perspective, ed. Said Arjomand. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, pp. 53-74.

2015
“Why and Where did Modern Economic Growth Begin?” The Low Countries Journal of Social and Economic History, 12(2): 17-30.

2015
“Phases of Global Demographic Transition Correlate with Phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence,” (with Andrey Korotayev and Julia Zinkina), Technological Forecasting and Social Change 95:163-169.

2015
“Hayek for Development,” Review of Austrian Economics, 28(4): 419-424.

2015
“Political Demography and Global Ageing,” a special issue of History &��Mathematics, edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev.

“Introduction” (with Leonid Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev), pp. 5-9

“Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of the Demographic Future of Russia: Seven Scenarios” (with Andrey Korotayev, Julia V. Zinkina, Sergey G. Shulgin, Daria A. Khaltourina and Daria A. Folomeyeva), pp. 52-80. “Population Aging and Global Economic Growth,” pp.147-155.

2016
“Regimes, Resources, and Regional Intervention: Understanding the Openings and Trajectories for Contention in the Middle East and North Africa.” In Popular Contention, Regime, and Transition: Arab Revolts in Comparative Global Perspective, eds. Eitan Y. Alimi, Avraham Sela, and Mario Sznajder, New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 97-114.

2016
“Explaining Current Fertility Dynamics in Tropical Africa from an Anthropological Perspective: A Cross-cultural Investigation, (with Andrey Korotayev, Julia Zinkina, and Sergey Shulgin). Cross-Cultural Research 50: 251- 280.

2016
“Economics with Varying Values: McCloskey’s Humanism and Fundamental Insights.” In Humanism Challenges Materialism in Economics and Economic History, eds. Roderick Floud, Santhi Hejeebu, and David Mitch. Chicago: University of Chicago Press).

2016
“Either/Or – why ideas, science, imperialism, and institutions all matter in the “rise of the west.” Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics 9: 14-24.

2017
“Demographic Structural Theory: 25 Years On.” Cliodynamics 8: 85-112.

2017
“Linking ‘Micro’ to ‘Macro’ Models of State Breakdown: Improving Methods for Political Forecasting (with Peter Turchin and Sergey Gavrilets). Cliodynamics 8:159-181.

2018
“Revolution and Social Movements,” (with Daniel P. Ritter). In The Wiley- Blackwell Companion to Social Movements, eds. David A. Snow, Sarah A. Soule, Hanspeter Kriesi and Holly McCammon. New York: John Wiley & Sons,��pp. 682-697.

2018
“Oil prices, socio-political destabilization risks, and future energy technologies,” (with Andrey Korotayev, Stanislav Bilyuga, and Ilya Belalov). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 128: 304-310.

2018
“Will China Rise?” Washington Journal of Modern China 14 (Spring): 64-72.

2018
“La nueva bomba demografica” Vanguardia (Spain), July/September: 23-27.

2018
“Review Essay: Ages of Discord: A Structural Demographic Analysis �Ǵ���American History by Peter Turchin.” Evolutionary Studies in Imaginative ��ܱ��ٳܰ�����2 (Spring 2018): 137-142.

2018
“Data and Dating the Great Divergence.” In Global Economic History 1500-2000, eds. Giorgio Riello and Tirthankar Roy. London: Bloomsbury Academic, pp. 38- 53.

2018
“Social Structure in the Explanation and Prediction of Social �پ������DzԳپ��Գܾ��پ����,”��Cliodynamics 9: 166-77.

2018
“T��� Once and Future Middle Kingdom: China’s Return to Dominance in the World Economy,” Comparativ: Journal of Global History and Comparative Sociology 28(4): 120-139.

2019
“A Truly Ancient "Great Divergence" -- A New History of the Chinese ���ٲ��ٱ�,”��Chinese Sociological Review 51(1): 98-105.

2019
“Stages Do Matter—And there are More of Them,” Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 49(2): 259-262.

2019
“Africa 2050: Demographic Truth and Consequences.” Stanford University, Governance in an Emerging World project.

2019
“Review Essay: The Road to Unfreedom, by Timothy Snyder.” Population and Development Review 45(4): 927-933.

2019
“Urbanization, Citizenship and Economic Growth in the Long ��ܲ�.”��International Review of Social History 65(1): 1009-1024.

2020
“Demography and the Future of Democracy” (with Larry Diamond).��Perspectives on Politics 18(3): 867-880.

2021
“Foreword.” In Age of Rogues: Rebels, Revolutionaries and Racketeers at the Frontiers of Empires, eds. Ramazan Hakki Öztan and Alp Yenen. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, pp. xviii-xxiii.

2021
“Dating the Great Divergence,” (with comments by Stephen Broadberry, Paolo Malanima, and Jan Luiten van Zanden & Jutta Bolt). Journal of Global History 16(2): 266-285.

2021
“Why Understanding the Timing of Divergence Matters,” Journal of Global History 16(2): 309-314.

2021
Choice and Consequence: The Downstream Effects of US Immigration Admission Policies, 2020-2060, with Justin Gest, Annie Hines, Erin Hoffman and Guizhen Ma. Fwd.us, March 1, 2021.

2021
“Population, Revolution and Rebellion.” In Research in Political Demography, ed. Jennifer Sciubba. London: Edward Elgar, pp. 131-145.

2022
“T��� Paradox of Victory: Social Movement Fields, Adverse Outcomes, and Social Movement Success” (with Bert Useem). Theory and Society 51: 31-60.

2022
“1769: Dartmouth, Machines and Modernity.” In Dartmouth and the World: Religion and Political Economy in the Long Eighteenth Century, ed. Henry C. Clarke. Madison, NJ: Fairleigh Dickenson University Press/Rowman & Littlefield, pp. 17-37.

2022
“Will Covid-19 Bring Down Governments? Will it Bring Rebellions and Revolutions?” In A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Pandemics: COVID-19 and Beyond, eds. Philippe Bourbeau, Jean-Michel Marcoux and Brooke A. Ackerly. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 70-89.

2022
“Contemporary Population Issues” (with John F. May). In International Handbook of Population Policies, eds. John F. May and Jack A. Goldstone, Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature, pp. 3-19.

2022
“Prospects for Population Policies and Interventions” (with John F. May). In International Handbook of Population Policies, eds. John F. May and Jack A. Goldstone. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature, pp. 781-802.

2022
“Introduction: Changing Yet Persistent: Revolutions and Revolutionary Events” (with Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev). In Handbook of Revolutions in the 21^st Century: New Waves of Revolution and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change, eds. Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature, pp. 1-34.

2022
“T��� Phenomenon and Theories of Revolution” (with Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev). In Handbook of Revolutions in the 21^st Century: New Waves of Revolution and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change, eds. Jack��A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature, pp. 37-68.

2022
“Conclusion: How Many Revolutions Will We See in the Twenty-First Century” (with Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev). In Handbook of Revolutions in the 21^st Century: New Waves of Revolution and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change, eds. Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature, pp. 1037-1061.

2023
“T��� Global Economy’s Future Depends on Africa: As Others Slow, a Youthful Continent Can Drive Growth” (with John F. May). Foreign Affairs.com May 18.

In��preparation
“Trajectories of Democracy and Development: New Insights from Dynamic ���Բ����������.”

In��preparation
“Why does High Fertility Persist in Tropical Africa?

HONORS AND AWARDS FOR TEACHING

Highest Teacher Rating, School of Public Policy, ����AV, 2008, 2009 Certificate for Outstanding Commitment to Undergraduate Researchers, UC Davis, 1991 Honor Role for Undergraduate Teaching, Northwestern University, 1985

Certificate of Distinction in Teaching, Harvard University, 1982

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES

Consulting Editor, American Journal of Sociology, 1984-87; 1999-2002 Corresponding Editor, Theory and Society, 1984-2000

Editorial Board, Sociological Theory, 1988-90; Rationality and Society, 1995-2000 Editorial Board, Cambridge University Press series on Contentious Politics 2001- Editorial Board, ASA Rose Monograph Series, 2008-11

Editor, Foreign Policy Bulletin, 2006-2012

Editorial Board, Politics and Governance 2012-2018 Editorial Board, Russian Journal of Economics, 2014-2020

Review Panel, Dissertation Fellowships in Sociology, National Science Foundation 2001 Review Panel, Grants in Sociology, National Science Foundation, 2002

Selection Committee for Woodrow Wilson Center Fellowships, 2000, 2004 Foreign Policy Studies Review Panel, Social Science Research Council 1989-93

Committee on International Security, American Assn. for the Advancement of Science, 1994-95 Advisory Committee, American Academy of Arts and Sciences project on Scarcity, State

Capacity, and Violent Conflict. 1994-96

Chair, National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs, 2006-2007

Advisory Committee, Woodrow Wilson Center Project on Environment and Security 1998- Claude Lambe Fellowship Selection Committee, Institute of Humane Studies, 1997-99, 2003-

U.S. Institute of Peace, Senior Fellowship Screening Committee 1997

MacArthur Foundation SSRC Grants in International Security, Screening Committee 1988-91 National Program Committee, Social Science History Association, 1990

Head, Network on Politics, State, and Society, Social Science History Association, 1993 Nominations Committee, Social Science History Association, 1995

Elected Chair, Section on Comparative and Historical Sociology, Am. Sociological Assn. 1997 Council, Section on Collective Behavior and Social Movements, Am. Sociological Assn. 2002-5 Council, Section on Social Theory, American Sociological Association, 2004-2006

Board, Society for Comparative Research, 2005- Advisory Board, RUMI Foundation, 2011-2014

Advisory Committee, Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action, 2011-2015 Academic Fellow, European Policy Council, 2012-2015

Advisory Board, Centre on Social Movement Studies, European University Institute, 2012-15 International Advisory Board, Gaidar Institute (Moscow), 2013-2019

Advisory Committee, Penn Kemble Fellows Program, National Endowment for Democracy 2014-2018

International Assessment Board for University Social Sciences, Hong Kong 2020 RAE

REFERENCES

Professor Doug McAdam, Emeritus
Professor of Sociology
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305
phone 650-723-9401
email:��robert.bates.harvard.edu@gmail.com

Professor Robert Bates, Emeritus
Eaton Professor in the Department of Government,��Harvard University
1737 Cambridge Street, CGIS Knafel Bldg. 213
Cambridge, MA 02138
email: mcadam@stanford.edu��������������

Dr. Craig Calhoun
University Professor of Social Sciences
Arizona State University
Tempe, AZ
phone: 480-727-7717
email: craig.calhoun@asu.edu

Professor Kingsley Haynes
University Professor and Hazel Chair,��Emeritus
Schar School of Policy and Government, ����AV
phone: 703-993-2280
email: khaynes@gmu.ed